The Future of Victorian Cities
Introduction
Victoria is at a crossroads. By 2056, its population is set to reach an astonishing 11 million, an increase of about 4.5 million from 2022. This unprecedented growth raises critical questions about urban development and its impact on quality of life, economy, and environment. Infrastructure Victoria's comprehensive study, published in October 2023 offers a deep dive into five urban development scenarios, each with its unique implications.
This blog post is a summary of a much larger report. To access the full report go to the Infrastructure Victoria website.
The Five Scenarios
Infrastructure Victoria has laid out five potential paths for Victoria's urban development:
Dispersed City: Expansion of Melbourne’s growth areas with more detached homes.
Consolidated City: Increased medium-density homes in Melbourne’s inner and middle areas.
Compact City: A rise in high-density homes in Melbourne’s inner areas.
Network of Cities: More homes in regional centers.
Distributed State: Growth in homes across regional towns and rural areas.
Each scenario presents different outcomes for housing types, economic performance, greenhouse gas emissions, land usage, and infrastructure needs.
The report is clear that a more consolidated or compact city is likely our best chance at more sustainable growth model.
By the Numbers: The Compelling Case for Compact Cities
Victoria's population is expected to surpass 11 million by 2056.
Compact cities could save $590,000 in infrastructure costs per new home.
They could generate housing benefits worth $52 to $105 billion.
Public transport use could increase by 25%, and time spent in congested conditions could decrease by 70%.
Compact cities could result in $43 billion more in economic benefits than dispersed cities.
They would save 30,000 hectares of land, equivalent to over 12,000 Melbourne Cricket Grounds.
Compact cities could have 154,000 fewer cars and 17.3 million tonnes less emissions from trucks and cars.
Advantages of More Compact and Consolidated Cities
Economic and Infrastructure Benefits: Compact and consolidated cities in Victoria show stronger economies, offer better job opportunities, and have lower infrastructure costs. For instance, the infrastructure cost for each new home in a dispersed city is $59,000 more than in a compact city, potentially saving up to $41 billion.
Environmental and Social Outcomes: These city forms are environmentally friendlier, generating fewer greenhouse gas emissions and using less land. A dispersed city might use an extra 30,000 hectares of land compared to a compact city. Additionally, compact urban development offers diverse housing options, including medium-density homes like townhouses and low-rise apartments, as well as high-density apartments.
Accessibility and Quality of Life: In more compact scenarios, over 25% more people would use public transport, leading to 70% less time in congested conditions. This translates to better accessibility to jobs, education, and services, enhancing the quality of life for residents.
The Disadvantages of of a More Compact Built Form
The report by Infrastructure Victoria does acknowledge several disadvantages of a more compact city:
Housing Preferences: More compact cities would require a shift towards building more townhouses and apartments. This means a reduction in the availability of detached houses, which may not align with the housing preferences of everyone.
Rapid Changes in Established Suburbs: Compact city development can lead to quicker changes in established suburbs, which can be unsettling for current residents who are accustomed to their neighborhood's existing character.
Increased Construction Activity: The development of compact cities involves more construction activities, which can result in increased noise and disruption in the affected areas.
Initial Increase in Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Although compact cities ultimately reduce greenhouse gas emissions through decreased reliance on transport, the construction phase itself generates additional emissions. This initial increase can be a concern, particularly for those focused on immediate environmental impacts.
Varied Infrastructure Costs: While overall infrastructure costs tend to be lower in more consolidated or compact cities, this is not the case for every type of infrastructure. Some infrastructure, especially in established areas, such as schools, community facilities, and open spaces, may incur higher costs due to more expensive land and construction costs in these regions.
The Challenges and Trade-Offs
No scenario is perfect. Developing more consolidated or compact cities involves building more townhouses and apartments, changing the face of established suburbs, and potentially increasing construction-related noise and greenhouse gas emissions. However, these emissions would be offset by reduced transport emissions.
Looking Ahead: Recommendations for a Sustainable Future
To navigate towards a more sustainable future, governments and communities must make informed choices. Infrastructure Victoria recommends a strategic approach to urban development, focusing on compact city shapes to reduce difficulties, streamline infrastructure planning, and address climate change concerns.
Conclusion
The path Victoria chooses will shape its future significantly. While no urban development scenario is flawless, the research strongly indicates that more compact or consolidated urban forms offer the best balance of economic, social, and environmental benefits. As Victoria navigates its growth, these insights can guide policymakers, businesses, and communities towards creating a more sustainable and livable future.
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